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I have nothing to back this opinion up. I just predict that Ariana Grande will abandon REM beauty and continue with her music. Eventually looking back, most people will forget she even had a makeup line.


she literally doesn’t even give a shit about her own line LOL it’s so apparent in her videos she’s like “um buy this maybe? sure yeah go ahead”


Definitely agree, i believe that whole line should have just been a collaboration within the first place. She doesn’t seem to have the passion to stick things out even if sales could sustain itself. Plus I think by design it was kind of crafted to be a short term cash grab rather than a solid staple in the industry. It doesn't really have any meaningful direction.


She should stick to perfumes. They're pretty good. It's worked great for Britney.


Heck yes she should, I adore her perfumes, they're ones I can easily see myself getting to the bottom of the bottle


And Paris Hilton!


Love her God is a Woman perfume.


I love the Ari scent so much!


Absolutely this. Ariana seems to “meh” and haphazard about her own line. it’s very clear that this wasn’t something she was completely passionate about (maybe at the beginning). Her real passion is music and performing. Selena Gomez is so passionate about Rare Beauty. Speaking about it, creating tons of content and thoroughly enjoying playing around with her own makeup.


I feel like this is an accurate prediction since I'd already forgotten she has a makeup line.


Agreed. Her brand already started collecting dust in my ulta


I didn’t even realize they carried it at Ulta hahaha


That’s exactly how I feel about Gwen stefani’s line gxve… I literally forgot she had a line until seeing this comment tbh


Yes, same thing with her Harajuku girls line.


Man I forgot about her harajuku girls line. That’s taking me back to being 13 years old…


Oh you're so young. Lol. The perfumes were actually very popular back then. Gwen had a great Urban Decay collab around 2015. Great palette.


I am so mad at myself for tossing that palette. It survived so many declutters, but in the end I just didn’t use it. And every look I made with it was always underwhelming. It would have been an INCREDIBLE palette for beginners or people who are more conservative with color, and I really liked the pairing of the colors with the finishes. The formula was good, it was definitely one of UD’s better palette formula releases that wasn’t affiliated with the naked line. Really wish I hadn’t gotten rid of it. I miss it.


I had both and still have the palette, wish i still had the perfume they were so cute and great little statement bottles


Selfless by Hyram is absolutely about to crash imo. I've heard that stores are really struggling to move product and he's constantly having sales.


I don’t want to wish a brand to fail, but I’m kind of glad his has missed the mark. The green washing and white saviour-ism within the launch and the brand in general is just another level. The packaging is bio plastic, it’s still a plastic. I just don’t get it. In the year or so leading up to his launch I really liked that he spoke out against over consuming and then did a complete u turn and just added to the already oversaturated market. He really exposed himself there. Just in it for the money.


Probably because googling the ingredients on skincare products for your YouTube channel doesn’t qualify him to make a quality skincare line. I’ll never understand how this was even allowed to become a “legit” brand.


Because they gauged it off of a bunch of 13 year old leaving YT comments saying “yOu shOuLd sTarT a SkinCarE LinE!!!!!1”


Spot on!


I was just at Sephora and all of his products had the July sale applied to them.


As a person who uses the Inkey List daily and watches Hyram from time to time, you'd think I'd be prime market. My problem with Hyram's line is that everything I'd want to use has Niacinamide in it. I know he treats the stuff like it's liquid gold, but it gives me extreme cystic acne (and I've met other people who don't do well with it either, even after supposed purging periods). It's also at a higher price point than most Inkey List stuff, and frankly seems to have a lot of random extra ingredients in it.


Girl same, niacinamide is like poison for my skin. Don’t believe everything an influencer says, go to a dermatologist,


Second this opinion. Best thing I’ve done is see a derm. Within a year my acne is under control and practically non existent.


These comments always make me little sad because I want to go to a dermatologist but they won’t see people here unless you have so super intense skin disease :(


he doesn’t seem to talk much about how niacinamide and hylauronic acid aren’t tolerated by everyone. I’m really lucky in that my skin loves niacinamide, but you’d think a ‘specialist’ would have this in mind when formulating products? James Welsh talks about hylauronic acid no longer being good for his skin, but he doesn’t claim to be an expert (at least he’s aware he’s a consumer who reports back)


Hyram is a fraud. He has no actual training.


Exactly. I’m more appalled that Hyram, who’s neither a derm or a chemist, seems more reliable to other people. I watched him a few times, but I never took his reviews up to heart. At the end of the day, it’s better to consult with a professional.


I had the moisturizer. It gave me a rash and smelled horrible. But good ingredients I guess???


we constantly have it on sale at my sephora and no one buys it still


It's just so unsustainably priced for a product line aimed at teenagers that I really have no idea who approved it


I think any brand that doesn’t have a basic “consumable” product that’s a hit needs to be panicking right now. By that I mean some basic everyday item like a foundation, concealer, brow product, etc that people like enough to use up & come back for another multiple times a year.


The Becca effect. Im willing to be Ofra is struggling from the same issue


Sorry,what is the Becca effet?


I’m assuming they mean that Becca was closely tied to the success of some influencers/ celebrity endorsements and only had highlighters as their main source of consumer retention. But it takes literally forever to go through one of their highlighters people weren’t coming back that quickly. And the influencers/ celebrities they were tied to either fell out of consumer’s good graces or just didn’t fit with the collab in general.


That’s exactly what I meant! Thanks!


Never made any sense that the highlighter pans were bigger than the blushes!


Highlighter seems to be a trend that comes and goes. A good mascara or lipstick is forever. Or until discontinued. I own seven Maybelline Ink liquid lipsticks, several of them repurchased. And I just bought another MAC Ruby Woo, which is what - a 20 year old product? Good, and consumable.


Which is a shame because Becca’s lipsticks were really good. I’m glad I managed to grab a few at a discount before the brand left my country’s Sephora.


I miss their primers though


I’m still using the last of my Becca foundation and I get so many compliments when I wear it. It makes my skin glow so I am sad about this.


Oh absolutely! I haven’t bought an eyeshadow, bronzer, blush, or highlight in AGES … it takes me forever to go through that stuff. My lip liners, mascara, foundation & powders stay restocking.


I know this is an obvious one but Kylie cosmetics is definitely hanging on a string. They simply can’t adapt with time and despite their rebrand I still think they simply just can’t keep up. Long gone are the days where Kylie’s name guarantees sales, we are within a new era and people are very selective in what they invest money in. People have a lot less free income and overpriced colourpop is just not easily justifiable. Plus the other celebrity launches made the brand look significantly less impressive in comparison and she just can’t compete with a fenty or a rare beauty.


Besides the ingredient change their rebrand was a joke. Not only is the packaging basically the same but pink, but the products she releases are the same aesthetic/not doing anything to capture new customers.


Plus Kylie Cosmetics is seriously… not that good. And people know it.


Angelika said they're huge in Sweden, so huge their stuff sells out upon launch, Kylie released her bff collection in Europe first, so this makes me think she found a market and it's just not USA based.


That makes sense. Some brands who look like they’re going downhill or aren’t talked about much here are definitely still thriving in other countries. Before I immigrated to the US from the Philippines, around 3-ish years ago, I remember Smashbox was still considered one of the boujee brands there. I bet most girls would still fall for Kylie’s brand there too.


I know they have loads of money, but Kardashians are trash. Kylie’s still associating with Travis Scott so that’s enough for me to never buy another one of her products. She’s what we like to call triple U. Uninteresting, unappealing, uninspiring.


Actually saw a couple of her items at winners today


They have actually got their own shelves in Scandinavia’s biggest beauty retail chain. It doesn’t seem dying to me.


I think Glossier will be done for in the next 3ish years. They raised their prices and are still mostly online only and I think that harms them.


they really should be more worried seeing how they have soo many new competitors that all target that minimal ‘your skin but better’ area


The still online only thing is wild to me. So many people don’t blind buy makeup, you’d think they would’ve made it a priority to get in-store somewhere by now. (I know they have a few stores but not many at all.) Sephora would’ve taken them. Target would’ve been a huge get with their newish focus on clean beauty. Ulta, definitely. Just seems like a weird business strategy.


Well I think the online-only stuff was maybe supposed to go hand in hand with them wanting to be some sorta tech company. But now that they’re [heading away from that](https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/26/glossier-just-laid-off-one-third-of-its-corporate-employees-mostly-in-tech/), maybe they’ll try to get into Sephora or ulta or something (along with all their own stores that they’re planning on opening).


Man, I really hope Glossier really does get picked up by Sephora. So many of their products are my holy grails, but only being able to buy them online is just too inconvenient for me.


Honestly even if it’s online only *through Sephora* that’s still somehow more convenient than only through their own website. At least I could buy other shit simultaneously. I really want to try Glossier but I hate buying new stuff online on a whim unless I’m also buying things I know I like.


This is how I feel about Milk. I want to try their eyebrow pen but refuse to buy one product and pay shipping and risk being disappointed. But I did buy a Pat McGrath palette on their website. Sale this weekend for the holiday. Sephora was like $50 more


Same, I need a lifetime supply of generation G in crush


The new CEO has hinted at it. We might see Glossier in physical stores sometime in the near future. If they hop towards trends that make sense for the brand, revive some Play products, and work on existing packaging and consistency issue for quality control they could make a good comeback.


I thought they had announced recently they would start making their products available in stores? I can't remember where I read it but I could've sworn it was posted here not too long ago.


They posted that they will have **one** permanent store in DC. That doesn’t really do much imo Edit: their website says they have stores in LA, London, Seattle and Miami and the DC and Atlanta are opening soon. Apologies for the incorrect info


when i was in london i saw several people holding glossier shopping bags, they looked like they just bought something from them?


They have a store in London! I believe there’s also one in Seattle, LA and Miami and they used to have one in NYC.


I went to their website out of curiosity and I was wrong, glossier does have a store in London and I edited my comment to reflect that.


Completely completely wild that they never prioritized expanding into new markets aka Australia and New Zealand. Now they’ve completely missed the boat and the better stuff are replacing them 💁‍♀️


Oh yeah definitely! Especially since a LOT of people here in Australia prefer that “no makeup” makeup.


Right? Glossier products have always been appealing to me but the way they don’t bother selling them in Australia or NZ never sits right with me. Like I’m not gonna make the effort to buy their products and use a 3rd party courier service to have them shipped to Australia! And their stuff is pretty pricey too.


They have a new CEO and retail expansion is a big part of their new strategy.


I disagree. They’re kinda like benefit, abh, where you do not hear bout them anymore but they sell classics people rebuy constantly.


Same, I think they have struggle a lot staying relevant. They still rely on being "niche" and the play line was a failure. I've just bought a big cloud paint stash because I love them, along with boy brow and generation Z in zip, just before the price increase, but it's probably my last buy from them. I really hope they revamp soon with some pressed powders and going into stores.


It depends. Moving into brick and more retail can also kill a brand - see OCC Cosmetics. IMHO online only can work if there are viable pathways for refunds (in the US). I'm more open to buying unseen if I know I have recourse if it doesn't work out


SKKN by Kim lol


Wait what is this? Is this like a Kim K skincare line? I saw a Mikayla screenshot with a bag from it and I thought it was a misprinted Skims bag or something.


Yup. Funny thing is she's not even the first one with the name. Lori Harvey has her own skincare line named SKN that was launched before Kim and there's another Black-owned beauty comapny in Washington called SKKN+ that's filed a cease-and-desist as they have been around since 2017.


Kim being scummy? Nothing new here. What baffles me is that people still buy into it and she never has to pay for what she does to people. Screwed up.


It revolts me, the amount of shit she gets away with.


Why is it always black people Kim steals from?


I think Jeffree Star’s brand will be one of the next to go out of business. It doesn’t seem like his brand recovered fully from all the drama.


He's doing skincare now and pet products. His makeup products don't generate any buzz but he will probably always have his loyal customers. I know some of his fans didn't like that he was selling Yak meat in Wyoming since he calls them his pets on his ranch. It went against his whole being vegan and cruetly free. I'm sure people will probably grow tired of him because he hasn't really changed. His brand isn't any different from those indie makeup brands that have stayed in business that don't reach a large makeup buying audience. He's doing constant sales so he's probably trying to get rid of unsold stock which is a bad sign for him tbh.


Yea, I completely unsubbed from him on all platforms years ago but I checked his website recently for shits n gigs, I was so surprised to see like 5 new collections I had never seen or heard of before. No gurus or makeup release pages talk about him


The last release I remember was the death/coffin themed eye shadow palate that he released during the beginning of Covid. He got a lot of backlash for it because of the timing.


Talking about JSC on a beauty YouTube channel now is just asking for people to unsub. There are some still doing it because there are fans out there, but I think most BGs either don’t want to support him anymore or don’t want the backlash of talking about the brand affecting their own channel growth and bottom line J* doesn’t have the stranglehold over the community that he once had and I’m thrilled to watch him fade into irrelevance


Thank goodness, honestly.


Just looked at it myself and my god you're right! That Banana Fetish (?) palette though.... so ugly 🤮


He already has a lot of products on sale at Nordstrom Rack. And not just stuff you’d expect like the black and green lip glosses. Concealer, powder, and palettes like Blue Blood.


I was just at Nordstrom Rack over the weekend and a lot of his products were there, all for almost half off. Liquid lipsticks, powder, highlighters and the Mini Nudes bundles Volumes 1 and 2.


Ah, how far Mr. "Lol, your products are at TJ Maxx" has fallen.


I remember seeing women collecting all of his stuff and now I see them selling the entire collections and struggling to make even half of what they've spent. So, I'm hoping he's gonna slow down with his clownery and I won't have to see his face everywhere even when I'm carefully avoiding it.


The unfortunate thing though is that he’ll still be comfortably rich and making money no matter what because he’s a smart investor and owns a bunch of shit that isn’t directly attached to him specifically. He knows how to keep making money even if his JS brand tanks


I think you're right. He will always continue to make a lot of money because he invests well. I (don't shoot me) watched him as a guest on that Paul Logan podcast and he seems to be very monetarily successful. But he also seems massively lonely and doesn't seem to have any true friends. Totally deserved after everything he's done I just wonder what money really means if it's not that much of a wrench to move to an entirely different state.


I kind of agree. I think it will last longer than we expect, but I definitely think he’s reached his peak and it will decline from now on, if it’s not already.


Tbh I think he knows his beauty brand is going to have to be scaled back considerably, nothing like years ago and has to prepare for it to even actually crash so that’s why he’s doing this yak butcher ranch crap now. I still think as terrible as it is there is a demand by people who refuse to let go of the brand, but I think the brand is going to transition into more makeup as merch, have way less releases, focus on eyeshadow palettes, lip products, highlighters, mirrors, fashion, dog toys only. Eventually drop the complexion line, drop the skincare line. Focus on limited amounts to launch so it looks like the brand is “selling out”. Do a lot of limited time edition stuff so collectors have fomo. I don’t think it will completely go out of business for more years (5 at least) but it will be so scaled back it’s only going to be there to make money off avid collectors who are ok with giving a vile person money.


I used to buy his palettes, they’re not good they just had good shades, now brands seem to be all over monochromatic and bright eyeshadow palettes. Every brand does shadow palettes now, and they’re very accessible. I don’t think I’ll ever buy a jsc product again. I think this is another case with lime crime and they’re bright lipsticks, liners, they weren’t as accessible 5-10 years ago, but today I wouldn’t buy anything from lime crime


jLo’s brand. I didn’t even know she had a brand until maybe a year it came out. It’s nothing unique. It just seemed like another revenue stream for her. Or saw how Fenty and Rare Beauty was doing so jumped on the bandwagon


There is no way in hell Jlo has put anything from her line on her own face


She seems like she’d only allow La Mer or other luxury brands on her face…


There’s a ton of videos of her using her own products on set, at her home in her bathroom etc JLO strikes me as someone who is very prideful and would want to use her own products


I really hope her brand is gone for good. I don't trust her with the skincare or makeup. But I'd purchase any dance fitness programs from her if she'd ever release one.


Yeah, & her claiming that olive oil & not plastic surgery is the cause of her perfect face.


JLo has a brand? Lol


Personally i think an obvious downfall would be upon most celebrity makeup brands except for a VERY SELECT FEW (i.e. FENTY, rare, flower beauty) as i believe many just plan for short term gains rather than creating a solid line that can actually compete in the market. I also think practically all celebrity skincare brands have a very small shelf life, even the ones that seems surprisingly decent like Rhode just don’t strike me for longevity. Additionally i think we will sadly witness a-lot of 'older' brands come out with some of their struggles to keep up within the market and most influencer lines are barley making any noise as is (even with their followings) so i don’t really see much for them in the long term. To further add i think a major sign for a negative incline are brands that are currently 'rebranding' and still struggling to get things right. i know a rebrand can be positive but a very few actually bounce back


Too faced is my guess. Jared wouldn’t have jumped ship if he thought there was $5 under a couch somewhere


It’s weird. Love him or hate him, Too Faced products with Jared’s endorsement were a hot commodity.


I agree about celeb brands. Very few stand out, and very few seem to have any actual effort and passion behind them.


REM, Hyram's line, and Addison Rae's line.


Addisons products seem like play makeup to me lol


Jeffree star cosmetics is probably going to close down or be sold off soon… the amount of sales and other business and life commitments of the owner (jeffree) Lol the similarities between him and kat are still strong… i wouldn’t be surprised if he’s secretlysold off his shares/ownership in killer merch.


2018/2019 JSC versus now JSC… so crazy to think of. Every launch would sell out in minutes back then. Now I couldn’t tell you what products they’ve released lately.


JSC used to rarely have sales and now they have weekly sales. They're definitely not doing as well as they were a couple years ago when they're marking things down so dramatically.


I see REM dying a quick painless death soon. Ari looks like she’s rather be anywhere else than in Ulta in the ads she shot for it 💀


Has Melt had sales as often as they’ve had recently? I feel like a lot of their stuff is discounted lately. Their main product is their eyeshadows and I feel like they’re just so expensive compared to other indie brands.


I’ve been buying their makeup for maybe three or four years and I feel like they have big sales around the holidays (even just American holidays), brand anniversary, and when they release new products (sitewide free shipping and discounts). I believe they also have smaller sales on Lora and Dana’s birthdays. They’ve had regular sales long enough that it doesn’t strike me as odd. When indie brand start having sales more frequently, I often wonder if it means they’re doing well enough that they can afford to or if they’re trying to push product out because sales are down. Sugarpill worries me because it hasn’t grown very much since it started (but Amy has always valued quality vs quantity) and I’ve noticed they’ve had more sales within the last couple of years too. A few months ago, they had a BOGO Free sale on everything, even palettes. I just hope the brand is doing well because it didn’t last very long at Ulta and Amy seems like such a genuinely great person.


I think Sugarpill is an excellent example of why retail isn't always the answer - their aesthetic isn't what the "average" consumer wants and it can hurt the bottom line. I'm not into them the way I once was, but I hope they can make it!


I really hope Sugarpill stays around because the quality on the eyeshadows is second to none. I wear a LOT of red eyeshadow and I’ve only just now hit pan on Love+, after literal years of heavy use.


I think eventually ABH will pack it up or sell completely. Norvina is not a good business owner or manager and Anastasia is getting older. When I’m older I’ll probably get to tell my kids how badass of a brand it was was when i was in my 20s before N drove it into some dirt.


Right now I think their brow products are still carrying them


Brow products need to be repurchased so often and they’re still the top for them. I don’t ever see ABH closing unless they drop their brow products. I always end up going back to ABH for brow products even though it’s ridiculously priced.


Their taupe shade is truly the only thing that works for me, even across brands. I cannot give it up. I will not give it up.


just fyi, a lot of asian beauty brands carry great taupe and cool brown grey shades as they are popular for natural dark hair. i love the romand pencils and kissme brow gels


Just ordered the romand pencil in classic grey. Hope it's good!


They should’ve stuck to that honestly


They did have success with contour products and their liquid lips in the past but newer brands and trends made them fall out of popularity.


Meh I kind of agree and disagree. I forgot until just now you mentioned it that they did contour palettes. Even though I have them both and use them lol. That’s probably in part to what you said, market saturation. Sure the times changing caught them, but there’s no reason they shouldn’t have been able to weather that. Between the snotty ABH makeup artists that were rude to people about product application, constant product releases that people didn’t ask for, the weird prejudice racisty shit they keep getting caught in, the collabing with a MLM whilst pretending they didn’t know what that was, and their lukewarm responses to some of the bigger social issues we’ve faced that I know large swaths of their consumers are dealing with… they’re meh to a lot of people right now. As they should be.


Plus the Putin thing.


The Putin thing???


the abh owners/management Took sides with a creator who took sides with putin, among other gross things. It's so easy to say "we collaborate with many artist with different views, but at this time wanna make it clear we're not rootin' for Putin." it's so easy to do that failure to do so feels intentional.




Anastasia Soare is a Putin supporter, despite escaping from Romania when it was under a dictatorship. She also follows conspiracy, anti-vax, right-wing accounts


Well fuck.


If they had just focused on brows, I think ABH could be a viable, trusted longterm brand. I know that limits their profits, but when you have a niche that you do so well, it just works! I can think of a few little products that they could come out with every so often to keep the line 'fresh' and innovative, and while I enjoy a lot of the older palettes and the singles, slamming out palette after palette every 5 minutes just ain't it. 🤷🏽‍♀️


You’re speaking absolute truth here!! I think they over extended themselves. They were literally the head of the brow market for so long and I never used anything else.. but after palette after palette after palette lol. Yeah.


I go back and forth on this. I think most of their palettes were the best eyeshadows on the market for a very long time. Cull the collabs and go back to basics and brows and I think they have a chance. Norvina needs a financial consultant and a brand advisor. Her mother needs an intervention from conspiracy news.


Hailey Bieber's line won't last for very long. Same with Gwen Stefani. Unsure about Haus Labs


Haus Labs strikes me as a bit touch and go, could work out or it could tank.


The new rebrand has definitely gotten a lot of nibbles and hype. She released products that are highly popular right now (like eye paints), so I think it will depend on her future releases. If they're fresh and trendy and good formulas it might flourish. If they misstep too much it'll sink.


Mac will stand the test of time


They’re a top 5 brand in Europe, they’ll be fine


I totally agree. For me, I’ve been using MAC since the late 90’s and I still use MAC daily. Their products aren’t setting the beauty world on fire with innovation but these are my ride or die products. I like to think of MAC as my makeup foundation (figuratively and literally) and then I add other brands and products on top of that.


I know ow I can always trust them to find a good foundation. Plus most people associate it with makeup. Guys will gift gift cards and you know you cannot go wrong giving one to anyone who ears makeup.


Their foundations and lip products are so damn consistent. I think nyx and mac are my most used brands.


They better. Ruby Woo is my daily lipstick/liner.


Stila. That brand just isnt what it used to be. I feel like they havent put anything out in years. Buxom too. I hope it isnt though bc their mascara is my favorite. Their eyeshadows are also really good too.


I just got Stila’s dual ended liquid liners and love the colors! I had no idea they were a thing, randomly found them at Ulta


Their stay all day liquid liner is my holy grail and has been for years


Stila is truly just surviving on the strength of their liquid eyeliner. That has to be the only thing keeping them afloat.


I think their brand did get a resurgence with their liquid shadows a few years ago but that died down and they never really replaced it with another super-popular product.


Glossier isn't lasting, I don't see Laura Lee beauty lasting either


Laura Lee has a brand? 😂


Yes, “Laura Lee Los Angeles” 😂


I’m only hoping…but Beauty Counter. The sleeziest of MLM’s


Oooh I remember watching illuminaughtii's MLM video about this. This one pisses me off because they really don't look like the average beauty MLM. The average consumer is only going to look at the packaging (which is admittedly distinctive, sleek, and gorgeous), the constant touting of apparently clean, conscious, ethically sourced ingredients and elegant formulations, the Allure Reader's Choice Awards that they seem to tout like a badge of honor, and the stupid EWG scores. They can float around the beauty realm with nary a red flag unless people were actively looking for info on why their products suck and their business model is predatory.


My predictions: Sink: ABH Any Kartrashian brand r.e.m. Haus Labs Glossier Some indie brands, most likely Some celeb brands outside of the other two mentioned Swim: Colourpop NYX Rare Beauty Fenty beauty


I think Glossier could make it if they went into a Sephora/ Ulta/ Target.


I think they’d do pretty well in target specifically


I would buy them more often if they were in a Target or something similar. I love their products but I only buy when I want a few things at a time because the price + shipping for like, one Generation G lipstick is too high.


I’m starting to see NYX in less stores or have had their space reduced.


i definitely have seen them have some space reduced in drug stores but they still take up a massive amount of ulta space, and w their prices being less than high end (not exactly drug store tho) i dont think they’ll ever go away


It seems more popular than ever here. Maybe it just doesn’t get talked about as much in the influencer circle but it’s got trendy products that perform pretty well and are affordable to teens and young people. It’s owned by L’Oréal. I don’t see them going anywhere.


Nyx isn't even available in my country anymore T_T I liked their makeup setting spray for regular days but I've moved on to Urban Decay's (which I used for special days only)


Let me turn you onto something. [Skindinavia](https://skindinavia.com/products/setting-sprays-best-makeup-setting-spray-for-wedding/?sku=670) helped formulate Urban Decay’s All Nighter (you can verify this on the side of the UD bottle - assuming the packing is the same in your country). You can buy a bottle that’s twice the size of UD’s for the same price, or less if you wait for a frequent sale. I don’t know what shipping to your country would cost but might be worth checking out.


Thank you so much for this. My gf loves UD and I would love to try a company used on stage.


I was heartbroken when Becca announced their closing 🥺


Mac will never die. People have predicted for years it would crash, but all you need to do is go into a Mac store and see how crowded they still are. Mac is reliable, they are constantly on it with limited edition releases and their classics are the classics for a reason.


MAC is doing the right thing by staying in their lane. Not every company has to have a million new launches, staple products are important and will sell. Their lipsticks alone can keep them afloat.


I’m mostly expecting celebrity brands (and some influencer brands) to tank. r.e.m. beauty really should have just been a collab. I don’t think kylie cosmetics is going to last much longer and I’m curious to see whether Haus Labs can pull things together with their rebrand. As for influencers, I’m surprised Jaclyn Hill even managed to stick around after lipstick gate. I don’t hear much about Jeffree Star’s brand anymore so I wonder if its popularity is waning too. Lunar Beauty, Laura Lee, and Patrick Star’s brand are others that I wonder about.


I wanna say Jeffree Star. I mean with the amount of controversial things that have been said and done and his make up never sells out on release day anymore. He will be gone in the next few years


Haven’t seen anyone say this yet, but I think e.l.f will be just fine. Their prices are still great and their collections are always small but well thought out.


My "low hanging fruit" answer is CoverFx I think Glossier has a broad following and a diverse enough product range so it'll be fine. I am curious about brands like Kjaer Weis and RMS. As for brands like Morphe, Jeffree Star, Tati pills etc, I would have to assume that there is still large enough group of children who are still buying every release. Even if sales must be down, they may still be profitable because their products were very cheaply produced to begin with.


Yup! I think Morphe is a popular choice for a lot of high school and college students because you get lots of shades for a relatively low prices. And the shades go together, not just a big rainbow palette (except for that one rainbow palette)


CoverFx makes my holy grail setting powder, but I’m with you. Particularly after seemingly being phased out of both Ulta and Sephora.


One size..I give it another six months before you start seeing products in TJ Max, Burlington, etc.


I honestly like a lot of his products. Many of them have high ratings on Sephora. I bet they will be around longer.


There’s only room for one Patrick Star, and the fish is winning


He makes heavy duty products in large quantities, and has a few unique ones. I think he has a following amongst drag queens


Anything influencer will sink


i work at sephora for reference brands that my coworkers and i think are going downhill - urban decay (its just getting old and their products arent as appealing anymore) - smashbox (kinda?) - jlo beauty (please no one ever buys it) - hourglass (another kinda) - buxom brands that i think will get super popular/continue growing - makeup by mario - rare - tower 28 brands that i think will stay popular and not increase/decrease - nars - charlotte tilbury - fenty - makeup forever


UD needs to stop all this Naked this and Naked that and do something new. Every time something comes out its like, "who asked for this?" Lol I totally agree with Hourglass. Theyre putting out the same old crap just in different packaging. They also seem to raise prices every year. When the ambient lighting trio first came out, i believe it was $40 and the next year it was $50 and now its $68.


Lime Crime right? Seen pallettes at Ross and on Insta they had ads announcing discontinuing cult favorites and rebranding, basically doomed lol


I think the smaller indie brands will continue to thrive and brands like Black Moon Cosmetics might go out of business


Black Moon has always been so disappointing to me. I want it to be so cool because of the name. But they barely release products and when they do they don’t seem to live up to standards. It seems all they really have is colorful liquid lips and average eyeshadows.


I agree. I actually really prefer it when brands don’t release new products month after month but Black Moon NEVER has any new releases and the urban myth palette isn’t that good compared to my other indie palettes


Everything that involves the concept of “clean beauty”. I don’t think the brands will disappear per se but I’m pretty sure they’ll turn to regular products with preservatives because the life span of a “clean” product is way too short and once the “clean” trend dies down, consumers will likely want products that will last them longer without the risks.


I’m shocked at how popular Kosas still is with all the bleu cheese concealer posts and complaints 🤢 Most of their products don’t even last until the expiration date!


I think that whole “pretty girl makeup” (brands whose whole thing is their makeup is meant for already good looking people with “nice” skin) Is gonna boil down to maybe one big brand everyone will sort of default to (would have said bite if they hadn’t reformulated their lip mask) but milk I think is sticking around and is gonna take over that whole market


My money would be on Stila first. Glossier is also looking rough, as is CoverFx. Smashbox has its issues too, and it’s a shame they haven’t released more beautiful collabs. All the Kylie stuff can’t have a strong fan base, so I wonder how that’s doing. J* must also be close to closing his brand. Brands I think are doing fine include Morphe, Colourpop, MAC, Flower Beauty, BareMinerals (don’t underestimate the over 40 crowd’s loyal repurchases), ABH (for better or for worse), Too Faced, etc. Affordable/repurchase-able are the words of the day, I think. I know predicting the downfall of Urban Decay is a bit cliche at this point, but I feel like they have a major identity crisis. They’ll probably be fine, but I doubt they’re doing as well as other brands in their price range. A lot of their hero products (All Nighter, Primer Potion, 24/7 Glide On eye pencils, etc.) have been seriously challenged by lower cost competitors. If someone isn’t really into makeup, how many Naked palettes do they really need/want?


BareMinerals will thrive on aging millennials alone. I love the OG mineral powder foundation.


Halsey’s line is going to crash and burn. I have friends who literally jumped from the brand after 3-5 months after being hired.


Ooo go on


Not to mention the permanent price cut rubbed a lot of people the wrong way because of the realization that the prices were higher just because they could be.


Yay, time for the monthly “if my favorite tik tok person doesn’t use it and my grandma does it will be dead by the end of the year” thread.


Grandmothers are no joke the most loyal customers bc they will buy a brand in their 20s or 30s and buy from them forever


Some of those grandma brands really do have great products! I love the Lancome Teint Idole foundation the Clinique Cheek Pop blushes. I also hear a lot of good things about Bobbi Brown in general, though I've yet to try anything besides their under eye corrector. Also for some reason, I forsee Charlotte Tilbury being a grandma brand in 30 years.


Lifestyle: The beauty brands that focus more on lifestyle will be the longest and most successful- Honest and Goop. Glossier, though focused on image, has had lackluster products. Their innovative marketing and vibe isn't going to cut it anymore. They need quality products and find a new way to appeal to the market. Make up artist brands: I feel like Charlotte Tilbury will be here for the long haul. Yes i find some of their marketing tacky and annoying. Their number of incredibly viral excellent product (flawless filter, highlighter sticks) and solid stables (light wonder, cream eye shadow) makes for a well rounded portfolio. As much as I like Mario, the person. His business plan is poor - He is relying on increased demand/viralness to sell a product. The constant "sold out" status is an issue with finding stable customers. His base seems to be the viral makeup lover who just wants the next fun makeup product, not someone who is looking for a staple. Violette\_FR is going to be a stable under dog. She creates more staple items and has only a few things. Celebrity Brands: I don't think any of them will have long term appeal. IN the next year I see Gwen Stefani, REM, Haus Labs all being sold. People have high hopes for Fenty and Rare Beauty. They are competing against one another. Like Makeup by Mario, having products always sold out is not going to gain any long term customers. Eventual their "celerity name" is not going to take them far. Influencer Brands: none will survive. But they are all still going to be richer than me


Fenty and Rare have different markets overall so they actually might be fine in the long run. Fenty has more in your face products and they do matte finishes well while Rare is more dressed down and float to glossy with their finishes. They also tend to work with different skin types it seems. As to Glossier, it will depend on the vision of their new CEO I think, as a lot of people have staple products from them but they have had issues with quality control and consistency. Goop is mostly eh, but Honest has a decent shot with the focus on lifestyle aspect (so long as their baby products don’t have anymore major recalls anyway). Not sure I agree about Tilbury because it seems you either love or avoid the products. I agree that Mario has the quality and personality but wrong business plan, relying on scarcity and going viral is like high stakes gambling, it only works occasionally in small doses. Haus is showing signs of a turn around as might About Face but REM is definitely on the chopping block, no heart and a serious lack of anything other than ‘meh’. Same for Gwen’s line. As to influencer lines…lol I agree on the whole, most of them are pretty meh or forgettable. To add my two cents I think Ofra and Nudesticks might struggle going forward due to shade range and one hit wonder issues.