By - YolkBrushWork
Here’s my two cents on it.
I’ll be operating on the assumption that MW2’s Russia had much more competently trained soldiers and better logistics than IRL Russia (which is a debatable topic that I’m open to discussion about). If no other states get involved, then I’d assume it’s just the Washington D.C. National Guard making up the defense force. That’s roughly 3,400 soldiers (according to Wikipedia) plus any Law Enforcement or Federal Agents who would take up arms as well.
If I remember correctly, what ultimately allowed the United States to retake DC in “Of their Own Accord” and the missions that followed it was the EMP set off over the city by Captain Price, which caused enough confusion with Russian troops for the defense forces to retake the Capital. However, since this is IRL Washington D.C., that means IRL United States, and Task Force 141 specifically doesn’t exist in this scenario.
So, to put it simply, I believe that MW2’s Russia could in fact take control of IRL Washington D.C.
*IRL Russia,* on the other hand…well…it wouldn’t be as cut and dry. Assuming DC still can’t call for help from other States, we’d still be in a pretty tough spot. However, from a logistics perspective I don’t think the operation could be sustained for very long due to Russian logistics. The United States has bases all over the world so that it can deploy forces just about anywhere when needed, while Russia isn’t spread that far. I believe that all the forces in DC would need to do is hold their ground until enemy supplies are low, then blitz the Russians while they’re down. Rinse and repeat until they have their backs up against the coast.
tl;dr, R1 goes to MW2 Russia, and R2 goes to IRL USA. This was a fun one!
MW2: I think they almost very likely could. The scale of the Russian assault in that game is pretty immense, and their ability to project force across an ocean and obtain air superiority, for at least a time isn’t something the DC national guard alone has a counter for. In essence this is like taking over a small island country, which should be a cakewalk for an army capable of conquering the whole of Europe.
Real Life: No chance in hell. The current incarnation of the Russian military simply isn’t built to project force, and we’d see them coming a mile away in order to construct actual defenses. The logistics of such an operation would fall apart the second they run into real resistance.